Given the upcoming Trump administrations statements regarding deregulation and the necessity of gutting guardrails, it should be clear that the sanity of those who will be running things is fast evaporating.
AI and other converging technologies could be applied to produce biological weapons that appear very different from those of the past, which often relied on existing, known agents like anthrax to cause disease or death among targeted populations. This could challenge assumptions about what biological weapons look like and lead to questions about the breadth of coverage of the Biological Weapons Convention, the global treaty banning bioweapons.
For example, biological design tools and other forms of generative AI can be used to design molecules with desired bioactivity, toxicity, and molecular properties. Such tools could be used to develop a new generation of biological weapons with novel characteristics such as the capacity to evade conventional detection methods.
Large Language Models include tools like chatbots that can generate and process large amounts of data. Such models could reduce some of the skill required to perform biological experiments, facilitate the acquisition of biological weapons and related materials, and aid the planning of an attack by a wide range of hostile forces, potentially including non-state actors.
Large Language Models could also play a role in facilitating and accelerating the spread of mis- and dis- information related to any disease outbreak or deliberate biological event; for example, by obscuring the origins of a disease. In 2022, the UN Interregional Crime and Justice Research Institute released a handbook on combating weapons of mass destruction disinformation that highlighted the risk of AI techniques being used to influence opinion by generating fake content and eroding public trust—notably on vaccines,. There’s a risk that, applied to a public health crisis, such AI-generated falsehoods could mislead investigations, interfere with medical countermeasures, or generate panic.
AI could also play a role in facilitating responses to disease outbreaks. For example, AI can help evaluate large datasets to identify potential vaccine targets and forecast the efficacy of vaccine candidates. AI can also play a role in supporting disease surveillance and early warning as well as helping to expedite outbreak responses. Such steps can contribute to the provision of cross-border assistance in the event of a biological weapons accident.
-Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists